Climate Change 2020, Part 2

Mendenhall Glacier, Alaska 1894 and 2008.

What does the Bible Say about the Environment?

The Bible talks about the management of the environment of which climate is a part

From Jim Denison

“The world belongs to its Creator: “The earth is the Lord’s, and everything in it, the world, and all who live in it; for he founded it upon the seas and established it upon the waters” (Psalm 24:1-2). How does he intend his creation to be managed?

“We begin with the instructions in Genesis:

“Then God said, “Let us make man in our image, in our likeness, and let them rule over the fish of the sea and the birds of the air, over the livestock, over all the earth, and over all the creatures that move along the ground.” So God created man in his own image, in the image of God he created him; male and female he created them. God blessed them and said to them, “Be fruitful and increase in number; fill the earth and subdue it. Rule over the fish of the sea and the birds of the air and over every living creature that moves on the ground.” Then God said, “I give you every seed-bearing plant on the face of the whole earth and every tree that has fruit with seed in it. They will be yours for food. 30 And to all the beasts of the earth and all the birds of the air and all the creatures that move on the ground–everything that has the breath of life in it—I give every green plant for food.” And it was so (Genesis 1:26-30).

“The key words in the text are “rule” (“have dominion,” v. 26) and “subdue” (“keep under,” v. 28). Both identify man as the ruler or “king” of nature. Since he is created in God’s “image” and “likeness,” he is God’s representative on earth. Oriental kings were expected to care for their subjects (cf. Ps. 72:12-14), upholding law and justice for all. Genesis 2 is God’s commentary on Genesis 1: “The Lord God took the man and put him in the Garden of Eden to work it and take care of it” (v. 15). “Take care of it” (Shamar) is literally “guard” in the Hebrew; the word means to superintend and protect in all ways.

“The Old Testament is very specific regarding the obligations inherent in this stewardship. For instance:

• Plants may not be cut down in war (Deuteronomy. 20:19-20).
• The land is to be laid fallow in the seventh year so that it may “rest” and feed wild animals (Exodus 23:10-11; Leviticus 25:2-7).
• Cattle are to be allowed a Sabbath rest (Deuteronomy 5:14).
• Newborn animals must not be removed from their mother in their first week of
life (Lev. 22:27-29).
• Oxen are not to be muzzled while at work (Deut. 25:4).
• Proverbs 12:10 is specific: “A righteous man cares for the needs of his animal, but the kindest acts of the wicked are cruel.”

“One day our planet will be destroyed: “The present heavens and earth are reserved for fire, being kept for the day of judgment and destruction of ungodly men” (2 Peter 3:7).On that day, God will replace the current earth with “a new heaven and a new earth” (Rev. 21:1).

“But we don’t know when this day will come: “A day with the Lord is like a thousand years, and a thousand years are like a day. The Lord is not slow in keeping his promise, as some understand slowness. He is patient with you, not wanting anyone to perish, but everyone to come to repentance” (2 Pet. 3:8-9).

“In the meanwhile, we are under biblical mandate to manage God’s creation well, to “keep” and protect it. Such environmental engagement is part of our witness to a culture which is increasingly conscious of this priority. Our work to preserve God’s creation is the best way to ensure that future generations will be sustained and healthy.”

Definitions

“Climate change” ( a preferred term over global warming) refers to any significant change in measures of climate (temperature, precipitation, or wind) lasting for an extended period (decades or more). It may result from:

• Natural factors, such as changes in the sun’s intensity or slow changes in the Earth’s orbit around the sun
• Natural processes within the climate system, such as changes in the ocean and its circulation
• Human activities which change the composition of the atmosphere (such as burning fossil fuels) and the land (such as deforestation, urbanization, desertification). 

“Global warming” refers to an average increase in the temperature of the atmosphere near the Earth’s surface, contributing to changes in global climate patterns. Most people use the phrase to refer to increased emissions of “greenhouse gases 

Atmospheric gases like carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane and nitrous oxide are called greenhouse gases because they act similar to the glass in a greenhouse by trapping heat.  

The greenhouse gases are transparent to most incoming radiation from the sun, which passes through the atmosphere and hits the Earth. The Earth is warmed by this radiation, and in response radiates infrared  energy back into space. That is where greenhouse gases come into play. These atmospheric gases absorb some of the outgoing infrared radiation, trapping the heat energy in the atmosphere and thereby warming the Earth.”  Life on Earth is only possible because of this greenhouse effect. It has kept the Earth’s average surface temperature stabilized at around 13.5°C (56.3°F) for a long time. The more greenhouse gases there are in the atmosphere the warmer our planet becomes. 

“Greenhouse gases” have been produced over the last 200 years. Burning fossil fuels produces carbon dioxide. Farming practices and land use changes produce methane and nitrous oxide. Trees remove carbon dioxide, replacing it with oxygen; deforestation lessens this effect in the atmosphere. As a result, greenhouse gases have risen significantly. They prevent heat from escaping to space, similar to glass panels of a greenhouse. 

Specifically:

• Carbon Dioxide (CO₂)is emitted primarily by burning fossil fuels and by the clearing of forests. CO₂remains in our atmosphere for many decades and some of it for many centuries and longer.
• Methane (CH₄)is emitted from landfills, coalmines, oil and gas operations, beef production and rice paddies. Methane is a very powerful greenhouse gas. It stays in the atmosphere for about 12 years. Measured over a period of 20 years, methane is 86 times more powerful as a greenhouse gas than CO2, and over 100 years it is about 30 times as powerful. 
• Nitrous oxide (N₂O)is emitted by nitrogen based fertilizers and industrial activities. It stays in the atmosphere on average for 114 years.
• Fluorocarbons Chemical engineers have designed these gases specifically to trap heat. That’s why they are very powerful greenhouse gases. These chemicals are used mainly “in refrigeration and air conditioning, but also as solvents, as blowing agents in foams, as aerosols or propellants, and in fire extinguishers. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change calculated that the cumulative buildup of these gases in the atmosphere was responsible for at least 17% of global warming due to human activities in 2005

Past cycles

Could these be natural cycles ? There have been natural cycles of warming and cooling

The last ice age was more than 10,000 years ago.  The main factors were slight variations in the earth’s rotation, namely the cyclical changes in the tilt of the Earth’s axis of spin and the shape of the Earth’s orbit around the sun. Solar variation and volcanic eruptions played a minor role as well.

Temperatures affected CO₂ levels due to feedback mechanisms. In turn CO₂ had an effect on temperature by augmenting the warming or cooling trend. In other words: Without the atmospheric CO₂, the changes in temperatures would have been much smaller.

“The atmospheric concentrations of CO₂ consistently fluctuated between 200 parts per million (ppm) during the ice ages and 280 ppm during the warm intervals. This shift from ice age to warm period occurred many times and always within thiCO₂ range. When the Industrial Revolution began, the atmospheric CO₂ level was roughly 280 ppm.” 

On the graph we can see that CO₂ never went above 300ppm. In 2014, atmospheric CO₂ concentrations reached an extraordinary 400ppm! From this and other studies we know that 400ppm “is not only far above any level over the last 740,000 years, it may be nearing a level not seen for 55 million year

The situation today is very different from the past’s natural cycles. In a very short period of time, human beings have burnt huge quantities of stored solar energy (fossil fuels), thereby releasing unprecedented amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. That’s why greenhouse gas concentrations have been so rapidly rising.

The global warming we have already experienced and the many changes in climate all over the world can only be explained by these tremendous increases in greenhouse gases. They cannot be explained by any natural cycle or changes in solar activity or volcanic eruptions. Today, human activities have a stronger impact on climate than natural occurrences: “We have so much CO₂ in the atmosphere that its huge radiative forcing overwhelms the changes associated with orbital forcing. No ice age could start at this point!

From – Scientific and Spiritual Dimensions of Climate Change 

Warming Trends

For the past 150 years, the Earth has been warming:

• Since the industrial revolution, global average temperature has increased by 1.1°C (2°F). Iin many areas, climate change is already disrupting people’s lives.
• Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850.
• 2016 was the hottest year on the historical record and the third consecutive record-breaking year. Of the 17 hottest years ever recorded, 16 have now occurred since 2000. 
• The warming is not evenly distributed. Some areas have warmed much more. Parts of the Arctic have warmed by 2° – 3°C (3.6°-5.4°F) just since the 1950s. 
• Present emission trends put the world plausibly on a path toward 4°C (7.2 °F) warming within this century

The first decades of the 21st century was the warmest on record, according to NASA.

1998, 2005, 2009, and 2010 ranked as the warmest years on record. The 20 warmest years on record have been in the past 22 years, with 2015-2018 making up the top four, the WMO says.

The main reasons for the warming are the burning of fossil fuels (oil, coal, and natural gas) and deforestation, which are adding more greenhouse gases to the atmosphere.

Carbon dioxide emissions reached its highest level in 2018 due to a strong economy and extreme weather conditions. Summers with heatwaves push air conditioning usage and harsher winters lead to more heating. A booming economy has a greater thirst for energy than one that is struggling or even in recession.

We’re standing at a climate crossroads: the world has already warmed 1.1°C since the Industrial Revolution. If we pass 2°C, we risk hitting one or more major tipping points, where the effects of climate change go from advancing gradually to changing dramatically overnight, reshaping the planet.

The change in the global surface temperature between 1850 and the end of the 21st Century is likely to exceed 1.5C, most simulations suggest.

Countries signing up to the Paris agreement pledged to keep temperatures “well below 2C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5C”. Even following pledges that may not be enough. But scientists now agree that we actually need to keep temperature rises to below 1.5C.

To ensure that we don’t pass that threshold, we need to cut emissions in half by 2030. Climate change has understandably fallen out of the public eye in 2020 as the coronavirus pandemic rages. Nevertheless, this year, or perhaps this year and next, is likely to be the most pivotal yet in the fight against climate change.

IPCC projections for the end of this century range from an increase of 1.8 to 6°C (3.2 to 10.8°F) depending on various emissions scenarios

Based on the above simulation, a person born in 1960 could expect to see 23 days the temperature reaching 90. Today is is 32 days reaching 90By the end of the century it could be 58. The likely range is between 37 and 72 days